2. Only artificial Insemination and Test Tube Babies by 2045?
Chapter 2 of "Castrated in the womb - every man a guinea pig"
From 2045, most couples will only be able to have babies using artificial insemination or the test tube - according to Prof. Shanna Swan's prediction in an interview with the Guardian in 2021 [1]. This is because the sperm count has been declining by one percent per year since the middle of the last century [2], which means that by 2045 the sperm count could be insufficient for natural reproduction.
Promptly, a prominent German authority spoke of a “complete overinterpretation of the data” [3], and a leading Swiss sperm researcher said as late as 2023 that men should not worry because reproductive difficulties were just a “fantasy” [4]
A week later, Levine's major new review documented a worldwide acceleration in global sperm loss to over two percent per year [5]. This made Swan's prognosis seem downright optimistic, and the critical “experts” fell into silence.
In the meantime, sperm counts have fallen to less than 50 percent of their original level. After 223 studies on 57,168 men in 53 countries, this is no longer a fantasy, and there is talk about an “infertility trap” [6]. More and more sperm are also poorly motile or abnormally shaped. In Germany, too, sperm cells are in a worrying state [7], and in Switzerland only 38% of military personnel have normal findings according to WHO criteria [8], although, as we will see in Chapter 52 , this result is embellished. Similar findings can be found in Labrador dogs [9], horses and bulls [10].
Not only does this reduce fertility, but the fewer sperm (and sperm quality), the lower the life expectancy, the difference can be almost 3 years [11].
Men used to compete in boxing and speed running. Now a 17-year-old student in Los Angeles wants to raise public awareness of the sperm problem and has invented the sperm race, where participants pit their sperm against each other. The sperm swimming around in the race look very cute. The first competition in April 2025 was a huge success and will not be the last [12].
In chapter 3 we will talk about testosterone decline. And this link takes you to the start of the book.
The German edition of this book can be ordered e.g. here.
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1. Corbyn, Z., Shanna Swan: 'Most couples may have to use assisted reproduction by 2045'. The Guardian, 28.3.2021. https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/mar/28/shanna-swan-fertility-reproduction-count-down.
2. Levine, H., et al., Temporal trends in sperm count: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis. Hum Reprod Update, 2017. 23.(6): p. 646-659. https://doi.org/10.1093/humupd/dmx022.
3. Reçber, S., Befürchtete Fruchtbarkeitskrise: Was hinter dem angeblichen Spermienschwund steckt - Die Medizinerin Shanna Swan sieht die Menschheit gefährdet, weil Männer weniger Spermien bilden. Ein Androloge hält das für übertrieben – und hat eine Warnung. Tagesspiegel, 26.3.2021. https://www.tagesspiegel.de/wissen/was-hinter-dem-angeblichen-spermienschwund-steckt-4163500.html.
4. Lüthi, T., Die Männer sollten sich keine Sorgen machen. NZZ, 5.11.2023. https://www.nzz.ch/wissenschaft/handynutzung-und-spermienzahl-maenner-sollten-sich-keine-sorgen-machen-ld.1764045.
5. Levine, H., et al., Temporal trends in sperm count: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis of samples collected globally in the 20th and 21st centuries. Hum Reprod Update, 2023. 29.(2): p. 157-176. https://doi.org/10.1093/humupd/dmac035.
6. Aitken, R.J., The changing tide of human fertility. Hum Reprod, 2022. 37.(4): p. 629-638. https://doi.org/10.1093/humrep/deac011.
7. Paasch, U., et al., Semen quality in sub-fertile range for a significant proportion of young men from the general German population: a co-ordinated, controlled study of 791 men from Hamburg and Leipzig. Int J Androl, 2008. 31.(2): p. 93-102. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2605.2007.00860.x.
8. Rahban, R., et al., Semen quality of young men in Switzerland: a nationwide cross-sectional population-based study. Andrology, 2019. 7.(6): p. 818-826. https://doi.org/10.1111/andr.12645.
9. Lea, R.G., et al., Environmental chemicals impact dog semen quality in vitro and may be associated with a temporal decline in sperm motility and increased cryptorchidism. Sci Rep, 2016. 6: p. 31281. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep31281.
10. Harris, I.T., et al., Temporal trends in equine sperm progressive motility: a systematic review and meta-regression. Reproduction, 2023. 165.(6): p. M1-M10. https://doi.org/10.1530/REP-22-0490.
11. Priskorn, L., et al., Semen quality and lifespan: a study of 78 284 men followed for up to 50 years. Hum Reprod, 2025.(March). https://doi.org/10.1093/humrep/deaf023 .
12. ABC-News Sperm racing in LA: Inside the first-of-its-kind race that's taking the internet by storm. 28.4.2025. https://abc7.com/post/sperm-racing-los-angeles-inside-first-kind-race-taking-internet-storm/16270132/.
Hello Lukas, Planet Earth is cheering, and so are some who think human exceptionalism is hubris. Homo rapacious-superstitious is in plague phase, having quadrupled in the lifespan of some living members. My friend and colleague William (Bill) Rees, developer of Ecological Footprint analysis in the early 90s, holds that 1 billion of us might be sustainable long term. The longer it takes for us to reach that level, the higher the damage will be from our activities and the lower that number will become. This negative feedback is nature's way of balancing overshot species. See around 80% into this short course by Reg Morrison the section "Evolution's Automatic Plague Limiter" :
http://www.zo.utexas.edu/courses/THOC/gambler.pdf
Each human displaces habitat for other life forms excepting human parasites and things thriving on our waste. Biodiversity will continue to decline. The toxicity of air, water, soil, the food chain, our bodies and those of other life forms, ...will continue to worsen. Competition for necessities will continue to increase.
My wife and I had one child. He and his wife, despite hearing the above points nearly 2 decades ago, had 3 sons. After 2 fraternal twins, she wanted to try for a girl. No such luck. I love our grandsons. They are lucky to be receiving a top education, and are in good health. The oldest 2 are just reaching puberty. I fear for the world they will encounter by mid century...if nuclear winter doesn't come first.
The catastrophe the book reports is the unavoidable result of the Maximum Power Principle. Humans are not exempt. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_power_principle
Lastly, we have will/agency, but it is not fully free. Physicalism (energy-matter-information) has yet to be challenged with evidence. Present evidence for deities, souls, spirits, ghosts, ...anything not contingent upon it, and win a Nobel Prize along with ~ a million $s.
Cheers on the Downslope,
Steve
Steven B Kurtz
Amherst MA